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✍️ Opinion

CERN's New Signal: The Discovery of the Century, or a Beautiful Statistical Ghost?

Opinion: The physics community is rightly excited — but we have been here before.

Marcus Tanaka, Physics Correspondent March 7, 2026 5 min read

OPINION

The signal currently sits at 4.8 sigma. This means there is a roughly 1-in-800,000 chance it is a fluctuation. But particle physics uses 5 sigma precisely because, when analysing datasets as vast as the LHC's, the "look-elsewhere effect" can easily explain a 4.8-sigma signal.

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

— Marcus Tanaka

CERN's New Signal: The Discovery of the Century, or a Beautiful Statistical Ghost?

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